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The recent announcement by US President Donald Trump imposing a blanket 10% tariff on goods from New Zealand has sent ripples through our export community. As Kiwi businesses grapple with this new trade reality, understanding the implications and developing adaptive strategies has become essential for survival and continued growth. While initially shocking, experts suggest the impact will be “manageable” – but that doesn’t mean exporters can afford to be complacent.
When President Trump announced the sweeping tariffs in early April 2025, many NZ exporters were caught off guard. The flat 10% duty applies to US imports on top of any existing tariffs, though there are some exceptions. It’s part of a broader protectionist move affecting countries worldwide, with China and the EU facing even steeper increases.
For New Zealand, which counts the United States as its third-largest export market, the economic impact is projected to be around $900 million. Westpac economist Kelly Eckhold describes this as “manageable,” but notes that the real challenge may come from weaker global demand depressing commodity prices across the board.
Not all NZ export sectors will feel the pinch equally. The wine industry, represented by companies like Invivo, is actively planning to shield shoppers from price increases. According to recent statements, they intend to absorb some of the tariff costs rather than passing them entirely to US consumers – a strategy aimed at maintaining market share in the competitive American market.
Interestingly, the timber industry appears to have dodged a bullet. The United States is New Zealand’s third-largest market for timber exports, but early indications suggest this sector may be among those with exceptions to the blanket tariff.
For the dairy and meat sectors, which make up significant portions of our US exports, the situation remains concerning. Industry representatives are advising a cautious “crouch, touch, hold” approach before engaging fully with the new trade landscape. This rugby-inspired strategy suggests careful assessment before making significant business decisions.
A curious element of this tariff situation is Trump’s claim about New Zealand imposing a 20% tariff against the US – a figure described by economic analysts as “garbage economics.” In fact, New Zealand maintains one of the most open trading environments globally, with minimal import tariffs.
This misrepresentation highlights the politically-driven nature of the tariff decision rather than one based on economic reality. For Kiwi exporters, understanding this context is important – the tariffs aren’t necessarily a response to NZ trade policy, but rather part of a broader protectionist agenda targeting global partners.
The announcement triggered immediate market reactions. The NZX opened down nearly 1% following a massive sell-off on Wall Street, sparking recession fears in the United States. What followed was described as a “rollercoaster day” with the S&P/NZX 50 Index eventually recovering to close at 12,338.57, up 0.15%.
For everyday Kiwis, there’s another dimension to consider: the impact on KiwiSaver investments. Fund managers are working overtime to adjust to the market turmoil. If you’re concerned about your investments, financial advisors recommend maintaining perspective – KiwiSaver is a long-term investment, and knee-jerk reactions to market volatility often do more harm than good.
So what can New Zealand exporters do to navigate this challenging landscape? Several strategies are emerging:
Trade Minister Todd McClay has already been engaged in clarification discussions with US officials, seeking to understand exactly how the new regime will work and advocating for New Zealand’s interests. This government engagement will be crucial for sectors seeking potential exemptions.
The landscape for New Zealand exporters has undoubtedly become more challenging in 2025, but it’s not insurmountable. By understanding the nuances of the tariff implementation, identifying sector-specific impacts, and developing adaptive strategies, Kiwi businesses can navigate this latest hurdle in international trade.
Remember that New Zealand has weathered trade challenges before, and our reputation for high-quality, ethically produced goods remains a significant competitive advantage in the global marketplace – even with a 10% handicap in the American market.
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